For thousands of years, Aboriginal people in Australia and other cultures around the world have used a keen sense of observation to predict the weather and plan their activities as a result. For most of us, this knowledge has been lost due to our reliance on the amazing information we can get at will from organisations such as the BOM. Some traditional knowledge remains in our culture, such as the old English saying, “Red sky at night, sailor’s delight. Red sky in the morning, sailor’s warning”. This holds true today and is a good starting point. However, in a survival situation where we may not have access to modern technologies, a basic understanding of what to look out for can be lifesaving. Observing changes in cloud formations, wind strength and direction and temperature changes is important.
Clouds– Changes in cloud formations and movements can be a very good indication of potentially deteriorating weather. For example, on a clear day, streaky, thin clouds can appear across the sky. Over a few hours, these may appear to join together and thicken. Another sign can be clouds moving at different heights and in different directions across the sky, indicating an increased chance of rain and increasing winds. This will often be followed by the sky ‘ceiling’ lowering, meaning that the clouds are becoming heavier, more loaded with water.
Linked to wind direction, where clouds start to form can also indicate impending rain. In coastal areas of NSW, the predominant winds are from the north- east in summer. When clouds appear to be building in the south, thickening and rising higher in the sky, it is a good sign that a storm is approaching.
Winds– Having a basic understanding of our predominant weather patterns can give us a good guide to possible changes. For example, in summer our main winds along the coast come from the north- east, particularly in the afternoon. When the winds come from the west, this is often followed by very dry, hot weather. This can lead to an increased chance of bushfires. From the south, winds will often precede cooler temperatures, rain or storms.
Being aware of the direction of the wind and noticing the changes can allow for planning to ensure safety and enhance the experience. For example, knowing that normal ‘nor- easters’ will increase in the afternoon may mean that activities on the beach should occur in the morning before it blows out. On a more serious note, when hot winds blow from the west, it may not be a good idea to have a fire or use an open flame to cook due to the increased chance of a fire.
Temperature- Changes in temperature can provide a lot of information as to impending weather events. For example, weather that is far above what is normal for that time of year, particularly late into the afternoon may be a sign that the weather is about to change. This is especially the case if the air feels hazy and sticky. It can indicate a severe weather change, potentially leading to heavy rain or even hail.
Other observations–
- No dew after a hot day can indicate rain is on its way.
- A ring (halo) around the moon often shows deteriorating weather the next day
- Smoke from fires not going up. This means that the air is cooling and is more humid, a sign that rain is on its way.